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econometrix
15-Nov-05
COMMENTARY ON INDICATORS |
| A decision support service © Econometrix |
| Updated from 11 November 2005 publication |
RESERVES: |
The month of October had seen
the Rand/Dollar exchange rate depreciating substantially, to R6.6950, from R6.36 at the
end of September. On account of this currency
weakness one had doubted whether one would identify much evidence of foreign exchange
intervention by the Reserve Bank as a means of building up foreign exchange reserves. In the event, the relatively modest $170m
estimated level of intervention, was in line with that of recent months but substantially
less than the kind of monthly intervention undertaken in earlier months. At the same time, the depreciation of the currency
meant that the Rand value of reserves rose substantially.
Even so, relative to other meaningful emerging markets, and relative to the
daily trade internationally in the Rand, amounting to $15bn, the level of reserves remains
well below what would be needed to provide confidence that the Reserve Bank has within its
power the ability to stop a significant depreciation of the currency. In the face of a large and growing current account
deficit, one remains fearful of a sharp decline in the currency in the event that the
large capital inflows which have been taking place over the last two years in such a way
as to compensate for the deficit, come to be reversed. |
MINING
PRODUCTION: |
| Although growth in gold
production improved in September from August, this was largely a function of the fact that
August gold production had been depressed by strikes on some mines. M-o-m seasonally adjusted growth in September, of
5.5%, could not, however, reverse the underlying downward trend in gold production over
the past year as evidenced by the fact that the September growth rate was hardly different
from the year-to-date growth rate. |
| Macro | Financial | Growth | Retail | Motor | Printing | Back | |
|
econometrix |
15-Nov-05 |