Y-O-Y GROWTH IN MANUFACTURING 4.1% IN DECEMBER
December's manufacturing statistics are reasonably encouraging, reflecting ongoing growth
at a reasonable pace. Y-o-y growth in December was 4.1%, which was much in line with the
underlying growth rate seen in the previous six months and was not much below the growth
seen in 2000 as a whole, of 4.5%. This outcome suggests that domestic economic activity
remains on a moderate growth path, showing very little adverse response to the decline in
business confidence seen during the latter part of 2000. Particularly encouraging is the
fact that manufacturing production in the fourth quarter of 2000 was 2.6% higher on a
seasonally adjusted basis than production in the third quarter. This is equivalent to
growth of more than 10 percent on an annualised basis.
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GROWTH IN CONSUMER SECTORS WEAK BUT IN
EXPORT SECTORS STRONG.
What is noticeable from examination of the seasonally adjusted q-o-q growth rate, by
industry, in the fourth quarter, is the wide divergence between the performance of
different industries. In particular, it would appear as if the relatively poor performance
of nondurable and semidurable goods seen through most of 2000 continued into the fourth
quarter. Negative q-o-q growth was seen in the fourth quarter in respect of food,
beverages, textiles, footwear, printing and publishing, glass and plastic products. |
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