GDP & Growth

17-Jan-01

Inventory buildup will boost economy  

 Summary :   
Inventory investment contributed 0.6% to GDP growth in 3q.2000, after having been quite low in the previous quarter. From other data now available, it appears as if inventory investment was also quite strong in 4q.2000.

Implications :

  • Real GDP growth, which was 3.8% q/q annualised in 3q.2000, probably benefited significantly from inventory investment in 4q.2000.
  • Three indicators suggest that inventory investment has picked up significantly during the last three months.
  • The purchasing managers index of December, compiled by the Bureau for Economic Research rose markedly in December. The trough was in July, but the October and November indices showed no change.
  • Import growth accelerated quite sharply in late 2000.
  • Private sector credit demand for bills shot up in December.

 

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e c o n o m e t r i x 17-Jan-01