| Summary:
Several unions threaten to strike - the National Union of Mine Workers (NUM), the National
Union of Metal Workers of SA (NUMSA), the Mineworkers's Union Solidarity and the Eskom
Employees Association. The sectors that may be affected are electricity, the metal
industry,automobile manufacturers and retail petrol establishments. The relevant issues are
- the level of wages,
- the wage gap between higher skilled and lower skilled
workers and
- the desire of trade unions to once again show its power.
Implications:
- Strikes are part of the modern economy and the strikes will
not damage the image of SA much if they are peaceful. This is especially so, because
financial markets are now dominated by news from Argentina and Turkey.
- The strikes will naturally depress output, but given the
modest level of growth in the economy, as well the weakness in some sectors, the strikes
will not be too disruptive.
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- Given the decline in the proportion of mandays lost, due to
strikes during the past few years, unions may have the desire to re-establish some sense
of their power.
- The level of wages: NUM is asking Eskom 9-12%, Eskom has
unilaterally implemented 9%. This is relatively high, as compared to the expected general
wage and salary increases of 7-8% this year. The SARB has felt comfortable about the low
rate of the increase in unit labour costs. There is not much concern that this type of
wage increase will cause unit labour cost inflation to rise too much. Employers will
simply reduce their labour force.
- The wage gap between higher and lower skilled workers: NUM
demanded 12% for lower paid and 9% for higher paid workers. This is a reasonable demand.
Trade unions should, however, realise that the main problem is the gap between the incomes
of the employed and the unemployed.
- The need of the unions to flex their muscles: Industrial
relations have improved during the past few years and the relative size of strike activity
has declined. It is unlikely that the strikes will last very long as the workers support a
fairly large number of dependents.
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