| There is a hint of less retrenchments next year, but other trends in
the labour market are unfavourable. This is clear from the results of a survey of 750
organisations for the year to September made by PE Corporate Services, as reported in
Business Day of 14 November. |
- The demand/supply balance for skilled labour will
become worse during the next few years.
- High, but slightly falling staff turnover : Staff turnover
as % of employment decreased from 15% in 1999 to 13% in 2000. The average for 1994-98 was
8-10%. Better economic growth will reduce retrenchments and should result in a lower
turnover figure.
- Prospect of less retrenchments : 70% of staff turnover was
voluntary and 30% was due to retrenchments. 66% of the companies retrenched
workers in 2000, as compared to 52% in 1999 and 41% in 1998. 33% indicated that they
expected to retrench workers in 2001. It is expected that better economic growth will
result in a lower proportion of firms retrenching workers. Furthermore, the painful
adjustments which firms made in response to the very high interest rates of 1998 and 1999
are now
probably out of the system. It is likely that voluntary departures by workers who were
encouraged to leave to make way for Employment Equity appointments are probably going to
be an important feature during the next few years.
- Greater resignation of experienced workers : The average
service length of workers leaving, voluntary or being retrenched, has risen from 2-4 years
in 1992-95, 4-7 years in 1995-97 to 10 years in 2000. This is a most unfortunate trend as
much human capital goes wasted as a result. It is possible that some of this may due to
promoting employment equity and some may be due to the growing demands of the modern
economy.
- Staff losses due to emigration are steadily rising and seem
to make up about 15%+ of total turnover. This, unfortunately, seem likely to continue.
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