| Real y/y GDP growth during the first half of 2000 was only 2.4%, but
the corresponding growth rate for manufacturing was 4.9%. For the second half real
GDP growth is likely to exceed 3%, while manufacturing growth will be at about 4.5%. The
strength will continue into the first half of next year. |
- GDP growth will be boosted significantly by manufacturing
during this and the next quarter.
- In 1999 real GDP growth was 1.2%, but manufacturing grew by
only 0.2%. This year manufacturing growth is, however, likely to exceed 4%, while real GDP
growth may be less than 3%. Next year both will grow at rates in excess of 3%.
- Strong growth in exports : The basic metal industries have
grown very strongly this year, helped by above average world economic growth
and a weak rand. The iron, steel and non-ferrous sectors have grown by 2%+ last year, but
is heading for a growth rate of +-15% this year. Next year will still see a healthy 5-10%.
Component exports of the motor vehicle sectors are also contributing to the healthy export
performance.
- The weakness of the rand which has come about during the
last month of two, will also boost output in those sectors that are sensitive to
competition from imports.
- So far restocking has been fairly modest, but significantly
better than in 1999, when interest rates were initially quite high. This has boosted the
output of intermediate sectors (e.g. paper, wood, building
materials, plastics, chemicals, etc.). These sectors showed no growth last year, but are
likely to grow by close to 4% this year and 3%+ next year.
- The floods of earlier this year disrupted agriculture and
also food manufacturing to some extent. Some recovery did manifest itself in the third
quarter and will also do so in this quarter. The foot and
mouth disease of cattle and sheep in KwaZulu-Natal, may limit further growth in food
manufacturing in 2001.
|
