Description
Scenario Modeller is an interactive, Windows-based computerised package which
enables the user to explore the effects of alternative economic assumptions on the future
path of the South African economy at macro level. Interfaces are provided through which
the user can quickly and easily change economic input variables and examine the effects on
key indicators of the economy. The modeller uses Econometrix' annual econometric model
which is updated each quarter, with latest data available and mid, high and low forecasts
for the economy. Output can be readily transferred to company models and tables in
Microsoft Excel, or into Microsoft Word documents. Scenarios can be linked automatically
to Econometrix sectoral and regional analysis packages for more detailed planning and
market evaluation.
Function
- provides an interactive, user-friendly means
for examining the likely effects of alternative assumptions on the South African economy
- quantifies the effects of changes in key
macroeconomic variables
- can be used by companies to provide
quantified economic scenarios for strategic planning and investment decision purposes
- can be used by public sector
organisations to examine and determine economic policies and development strategies likely
to be most beneficial towards their policy objectives.
Service Format
Scenario Modeller
is updated on a quarterly basis with latest data available and most recent economic
forecasts by Econometrix. It is provided on an annual service basis which includes ongoing
technical support as well as software and data/forecast provision. The package is able to
run on any Pentium-level microcomputer with at least 8Mb RAM and with Microsoft Office 95,
97 or 2000 installed. |
Uses
Scenario Modeller
makes use of:
- A comprehensive database of economic data at
macro level
- A sophisticated macro econometric model
which runs interactively within the package and provides alternative forecasts and trends
according to the assumptions used
- Interactive screens and software, using
Windows, which enable rapid retrieval of information and model recalculation for
alternative scenarios and strategies
- Graphic displays to give a rapid, clear
appreciation of the effects of scenario assumptions.
User Benefits
- Ability to examine interactively a wide
range of alternative future scenarios for the South African economy
- Quantification of economic effects of
changes in key economic variables (e.g. interest rates, exchange rates, gold price)
- Rapid, user-friendly response to enable
real-time use in conjunction with company's strategic planning workshops or meetings
- Exploration of economic policy alternatives
and enhanced appreciation of the interaction of economic variables
- Authoritative forecasts of macroeconomic
variables (GDP, growth, investment, interest rates, etc) over the next 5 years under
different assumptions (mid, high, low), updated each quarter
- Easy integration with in-house planning
models and documents.
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