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Econometrix is South Africa’s leading independent economic consultancy. Our economist team is headed up by Dr Azar Jammine, who has over forty years of experience and is one of the most well-known economists in the country. Econometrix provides economic research that focuses on macro-economic trend analysis (from a South African and global perspective) and in-depth economic forecasts.  We also focus on the analysis of economic trends within the various sectors of the economy.  In addition, we offer interactive economic consultations with companies, presentations, as well as customised research reports. 

Junior Economist position available. Click here for more information.

FLAGSHIP REPORTS EXPERIAN DEBT INDEX
  •   Quarterly Economic Outlook 
    Dr Azar Jammine shares his insights in our latest Q2 report analyses the most recent global and South African economic developments in detail, and gives four-year forecasts of a significant number of domestic and international economic variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

     

  •   Sector Focus
    The Q2 report is now available with economic industry analysis and detailed forecasts of key sector variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Consumer Outlook 
    The Q2 report analyses the latest trends in economic variables that impact directly on the consumer and retail market, and also includes detailed forecasts of key economic variables, consumption expenditure and retail sales.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Automotive Outlook 
    The report focuses on the latest South African and global commercial vehicle and truck market developments.  Forecasts of key economic variables, vehicle sales (passenger cars, LCV, MCV, HCV, XHCV and buses), oil and fuel prices and exchange rates, as well as a List Price Index model (containing a forecast for the escalation rates of top selling passenger and LCV’s), are also included.
    Click here to purchase.

Experian, in partnership with Econometrix, releases South Africa’s Business Debt Index (BDI) – a vital and unprecedented benchmark to interpret the state of business’s debt paying abilities.  The index measures the relative ability for business to pay its outstanding creditors on time and tracks macro-economic indicators that can impact on the ability of companies to pay its creditors.  The BDI is an indication of how the players in the business community in South Africa are settling their credit arrangements with suppliers – in other words, it is a reflection of the overall health of businesses.
For the latest BDI release click here
For a more detailed report regarding debt stress in South Africa by sector, please contact our sales team.

 

LATEST REPORTS

  • Paper & Printing Trends: Retail sales: November 2016.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Monthly Review - Dec 2016.
    Retail sales: November 2016.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Value of motor trade sales growth slid further into negative territory in October.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Petrol price to rise by 43c/l at midnight, with OPEC deal to limit production exerting upward pressure on oil price.

     

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  • Financial Markets: Local political tensions flare up once again.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Transport inflation decreased in December.

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  • Revs Newsletter: Value of motor trade sales growth slid further into negative territory in October.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Monthly Review - Dec 2016.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Growth in electricity generation rises sharply for statistical reasons, linked to steep fall in generation in mid-2015.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Total media adspend growth declines sharply in July.
    Retail goods inflation: December 2016.
    Retail sales: November 2016.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Paper & Printing Trends - Monthly Review - Sep 2016.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: US rate hike affects the Rand, oil prices continue to rise.
    Value of motor trade sales growth rebounds considerably in November.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Review of key developments: January 2016.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Household credit extension growth slows to lowest ever level in November.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Total media adspend growth decreases to the lowest rate in two years in October.
    Value of motor trade sales growth rebounds considerably in November.
    Food and beverages industry income report: November 2016.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: All vehicle categories close off 2016 with substantially contracted growth.
    PPI inflation for transport equipment continued to decline in November.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Margins of most major retailers improve in August.
    Weekly Recap.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Barclays PMI remains discouragingly depressed in December, indicating why one should be careful not to become excessively optimistic about 2017 growth prospects.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Margins of most major retailers were mixed in November.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: US rate hike affects the rand, oil prices continue to rise.

     

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  • Ecobulletin: Impact of petrol price hike on inflation relatively modest, but some more can be expected in February petrol prices.
    Reserves increase in December as forward position on Forex wound down: Rand remains surprisingly strong in the face of expectations of rising US interest rates.
    December vehicle sales growth weak mainly due to statistical factors: Hopefully three-year trend of declining sales is bottoming out.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Total media adspend growth moderated in January.
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  • EcoBulletin: Rand gains ground in January on back of fears of disruptions to US and Global economies as a result of Trump’s immigration ban.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: December mining output improves slightly, but overall 4th Qtr slump could send 4th Qtr GDP growth into negative territory.

     

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  • EcoBulletin:Following surprising recovery in November, manufacturing growth falls back sharply in December, adding to possibility of negative 4th Qtr overall GDP growth.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: PPI inflation for transport equipment increased sharply in December.
    Price of petrol expected to rise in February due to rise in oil prices.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Transunion SA consumer credit index for 4th Qtr points to stability in consumer credit health, indicative of marginally positive growth in consumer spending.

     

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  • Financial Markets: State of the nation address in focus this week.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Review of key developments: January 2016.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Fiscal situation at eight-month stage of 2016/17 encouragingly suggests budget deficit will be met: Challenge will be tax increases in 2017 Budget.

     

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  • Financial Markets: A defining week for financial markets around the globe.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Monthly Spotlight- Corruption Perception Index Feb 2017.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Monthly Spotlight- Corruption Perception Index Feb 2017.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Private sector and money supply contract significantly in November: Is this suggestive of more economic weakness in the 4th Qtr?
    Growth in foreign tourism remains incredibly strong through October: It's not just a Visa story.
    Slight pickup in growth of electricity consumption and production in November.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Monthly Spotlight- Corruption Perception Index Feb 2017.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Consumer financial position improves somewhat in Q2 2016.
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  • Paper & Printing Trends: International Pulp and Paper Price Report.

     
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  • Consumer Market Trends: Review of key developments: January 2016

     

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  • Latest From Azar
    “Time to take out forward cover on imports: Zuma's State Of the Nation Address is a No-Win Situation”
    The Rand strengthened last week to get back to close to R13.20 to the Dollar which has served as a major resistance level to further gains for several months now. Its strengthening occurred on the basis that even though US job creation was strong in January, a rise in unemployment and substantially lower growth in earnings defused fears of imminent interest rate increases in the US and caused the Dollar to weaken.
    At the same time, this week sees President Zuma delivering the State of the Nation address in Parliament. Given the proximity of the current exchange rate to the R13.20 resistance level, the most obvious course of action is to suggest that Zuma's speech could elicit pessimism about the government's approach to improving longer-term economic growth. In turn, this could theoretically heightened fears of a credit rating downgrade to sub-investment grade and precipitate a sell-off in the Rand. It suggests that now might be an opportune time for importers to cover forward. .  . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Little Chance Of Any Change In Interest Rates At Current MPC Meeting”
    For the third successive Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, it is virtually certain that the repo rate will be left unchanged by the Reserve Bank when the Bank pronounces on its decision on Tuesday. ..Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    The charge of fraud against Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan will be seen by most investors as an attempt to pave the way for him to be replaced as Minister of Finance by those eager to capture Treasury in order to benefit themselves from lucrative deals that might be forthcoming in the absence of close oversight of the country's finances by Treasury. . . .  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Perspective on ‘Fees Must Fall’”
    Amidst much rhetoric regarding the "Fees Must Fall" (FMF) campaign, it is important and relevant to clarify some misconceptions.Firstly, one needs to differentiate between freezing fees at current levels and abolishing university fees completely.. . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Reweighting Of CPI Leaves Questions Regarding Sensitivity Of Financial Sector's Focus On Inflation To The Nearest Decimal Point”
    Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) published the new weights of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, based in part on the Living Conditions Survey (LCS) of spending and income patterns by industry group, details of which were also published  . .  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “So Many Contradictory Implications Of Trump's Impending Presidency Are What Generates Huge Uncertainty”
    The impending US Presidency of Donald Trump is fraught with potential developments which carry huge contradictions. It is this which renders the resultant economic outlook globally and for South Africa in particular, so difficult to define. . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Rand benefits from dovish US Fed stance, Moody's upbeat remarks about credit rating and AB Inbev inflows”
    Rand strength has resumed considerably in the past week for a number of reasons. Firstly, the publication of weak US economic data in the build-up to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the unsurprisingly dovish comments made at the FOMC suggest US interest rates are going to rise by less than previously anticipated.  . . .Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “SONA highlights ideological challenges in trying to lift South Africa's sustainable economic growth rate”
    The State of the Nation Address (SONA) delivered by President Zuma in Parliament tonight highlighted the ideological dilemma South Africa faces in its economy.
    As expected, the President emphasised the need for "radical social and economic transformation" to broaden the ownership of the South African economy beyond domination by White persons. To this end he committed himself to many of the government's initiatives aimed at achieving such transformation. These include a radical land reform programme aimed at getting farmers to share their land with the workers; they include direct state involvement in mining and the introduction of legislation to ensure this; they also include government intervention to legislate, regulate, impose licensing requirements, budgeting procedures and procurement processes as well as BEE policies to drive transformation. .  . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “New minimum wage legislation may help promote industrial peace in industrial relations, but does not tackle underlying causes of inequality”
    There can be no doubt that the new minimum wage agreement signed by all except Cosatu yesterday, calling for a national minimum R20 per hour (effectively about R3500 to R3900 per month) minimum wage, was rushed through in order to be mentioned in the State of the Nation address tonight, as an achievement by the current government .. .  Please login to access full article

     

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Econometrix Park • 8 West Street
Houghton • Johannesburg • 2198
Tel • +27 11 483-1421 
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info@econometrix.co.za