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Econometrix is South Africa’s leading independent economic consultancy. Our economist team is headed up by Dr Azar Jammine, who has over forty years of experience and is one of the most well-known economists in the country. Econometrix provides economic research that focuses on macro-economic trend analysis (from a South African and global perspective) and in-depth economic forecasts.  We also focus on the analysis of economic trends within the various sectors of the economy.  In addition, we offer interactive economic consultations with companies, presentations, as well as customised research reports. 

 

FLAGSHIP REPORTS EXPERIAN DEBT INDEX
  •   Quarterly Economic Outlook 
    Dr Azar Jammine shares his insights in our latest Q2 report analyses the most recent global and South African economic developments in detail, and gives four-year forecasts of a significant number of domestic and international economic variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

     

  •   Sector Focus
    The Q2 report is now available with economic industry analysis and detailed forecasts of key sector variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Consumer Outlook 
    The Q2 report analyses the latest trends in economic variables that impact directly on the consumer and retail market, and also includes detailed forecasts of key economic variables, consumption expenditure and retail sales.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Automotive Outlook 
    The report focuses on the latest South African and global commercial vehicle and truck market developments.  Forecasts of key economic variables, vehicle sales (passenger cars, LCV, MCV, HCV, XHCV and buses), oil and fuel prices and exchange rates, as well as a List Price Index model (containing a forecast for the escalation rates of top selling passenger and LCV’s), are also included.
    Click here to purchase.

Experian, in partnership with Econometrix, releases South Africa’s Business Debt Index (BDI) – a vital and unprecedented benchmark to interpret the state of business’s debt paying abilities.  The index measures the relative ability for business to pay its outstanding creditors on time and tracks macro-economic indicators that can impact on the ability of companies to pay its creditors.  The BDI is an indication of how the players in the business community in South Africa are settling their credit arrangements with suppliers – in other words, it is a reflection of the overall health of businesses.
For the latest BDI release click here
For a more detailed report regarding debt stress in South Africa by sector, please contact our sales team.

 

LATEST REPORTS

  • Consumer Market Trends: Retail sales: May 2016

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Transport inflation increases in June

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: CPI Inflation rates for income/LSM groups: June 2016

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Revs - Monthly Review - June 2016

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Decline in leading indicator in April does not augur well for economic growth prospects over the remainder of the year.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends:Retail sales: April 2016.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: May CPI inflation rate surprises on the downside in part due to an unexpected decline in food inflation.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Growth in motor trade sales remained elevated in May, again due to statistical reasons

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Growth revised downwards, globally and in South Africa

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Growth revised downwards, globally and in South Africa

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Households’ net wealth position continue to deteriorate.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Growth in motor trade sales remained elevated in May, again due to statistical reasons

     

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  •  EcoBulletin: May mining production joins other recent real economic indicators in posting a substantial recovery, working against likelihood of recession and favouring recovery

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Electricity Demand Picks Up In May And Eskom Announces R4.6bn Profit For The Last Financial Year

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: June vehicle sales trend confirms downturn in the economy still very much in place.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Consumer Market Trends - Monthly review - June 2016

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Brexit causes currency volatility and oil price slowdown

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Brexit causes currency volatility and oil price slowdown

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Wholesale trade sales report: May 2016

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Encouragingly strong wholesale sales growth again in May points to economy possibly having bottomed out

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Remarkably strong performance for retail sales in May: Could the opening of the Mall of Africa explain it?

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Total media adspend growth moderated in January.
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  • Financial Markets: PMI releases to provide insight into global economic health

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: PMI releases to provide insight into global economic health

     

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  • Financial Markets: ZAR direction still likely to come from abroad.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Paper & Printing Trends - Monthly Review - June 2016

     

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  • Financial Markets: Foreign purchases of SA bonds and equities as fresh multi-year highs

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Demand for tourist accommodation improves in May; Brexit may dampen growth in foreign tourism to South Africa somewhat

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Liquidations: May 2016

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Growth revised downwards, globally and in South Africa

     

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  • Ecobulletin: Inflation increases slightly as expected in June, but remains below earlier expectations: Unchanged rates decision virtually certain

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Civil cases for debt for private persons and businesses enterprises increase on a m-o-m basis in May in part due to increasing financial strain in the midst of weak economic activity

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Civil cases for debt for private persons and businesses enterprises increase on a m-o-m basis in May in part due to increasing financial strain in the midst of weak economic activity

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Unchanged rates as expected: Reserve Bank clearly does not trust recent Rand strength to be sustained

     

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  • EcoBulletin:Growth in foreign tourism tails off slightly in April and May, but still solid

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Steep decline in building plans passed in May reflect lagged impact of the decline in business confidence

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Brexit causes currency volatility and oil price slowdown

     

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  • Ecobulletin: June boost to reserves by higher gold price neutralised by fall in the value of reserves held in Sterling due to Brexit Sterling devaluation

     

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  • Latest From Azar
    “Downward revision of the IMF global growth forecasts highlights insufficiently recognised cause of low South African economic growth: It is not all due to Zuma.”
    Given the depressed level of domestic business confidence related to the domestic economy's progressive underperformance in recent years, it is tempting to lay most of the blame on domestic factors. The most high profile domestic reason to account for low growth is linked to the impact of President Zuma's contribution to perceived "state capture" and the increase in corruption and incompetence associated with it.
    It is tempting to attribute the further downgrade of growth forecasts for the South African economy by the IMF just announced to be a case in point. However, such a domestically oriented view of the state of the South African economy overlooks the exceptionally important role which the progressive underperformance of the global economy has had to play in the domestic economy's underperformance. Whereas the IMF has reduced South Africa's economic growth forecast by a further -0.1% for 2016, to just 0.6%, it has reduced its forecast for global economic growth by -0.2%. Cumulatively, the forecast for global growth has been reduced by more than a half of the downward revision of growth for the South African economy over the past four years. Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Petrol price set to rise by 58 Cl next week due to increase in crude oil prices”
    The past month has seen oil prices increasing globally by around 8.4% and the Rand depreciating against the Dollar by -4.4%. The resultant increase in the Rand price of crude oil is therefore set to bring about a fairly steep 58 cl increase in the domestic price of petrol.Falling inventories of crude oil in the US and signs of a marked reduction in supplies in that country, together with the fact that the summer "driving" season is at hand in the Northern Hemisphere, as well as interruptions to supply from Nigeria which is experiencing severe political and industrial unrest, are exerting upward pressure on oil prices in the short term. The rising trend in the price of oil which has persisted since Brent crude prices bottomed out at $27 per barrel in January, remains intact. . .Please login to access full article

     

  • “With Rand having gained 10% on a trade-weighted value and petrol set to fall by R1 per litre, certainty that interest rates will be left unchanged”
    We believe there is absolutely no chance that the repo rate will be increased at the termination of the MPC meeting today. This is the first such occasion in several years where the outcome is a certainty. Even though the Reserve Bank has been talking hawkishly for the past year about the upside risks to inflation, the opposite scenario of inflation turning out to be considerably lower than previously expected is panning out. No more forcefully is this now coming through than that the Rand has gained over 10% on a trade-weighted basis since the last MPC meeting in May. In line with this, it looks as if petrol prices could be reduced by as much as R1 per litre at the beginning of August. .  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Forecasting responses to economic data and Brexit becoming ever more challenging: The longer-term challenges remain acute both for SA and the world”
    Favourable employment data out of the US on Friday caused risk appetite to improve in spite of the conventional implication of such a situation threatening to cause interest rates to rise sooner than recently anticipated.
    This positive reaction should be seen as a relief reaction, but cannot be relied upon to last. Distortions being generated by continuous accommodative monetary policy threaten to bring down the capitalist system as we know it in the longer term. In order to prevent such a negative fallout, the world's economic authorities are likely to respond in such a way that prevents financial markets from running away, just as they are threatening to move into new high territory. . . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Despite petrol price increase, downward pressure on inflation: Relief rally from Brexit vote petering out”
    The price of petrol on 95 octane fuel is set to rise by a mere 8 cl from midnight tonight. Because the increase recorded in July last year was so much bigger, this will result in a decline in the y-o-y petrol inflation rate, to -3.1% in July, from -0.7% in June. This -2.4% decline in petrol inflation will add to the disinflationary impulses recorded in recent months, on its own knocking -0.2% off the headline CPI inflation rate. Furthermore, partly as a result of the rally of the Rand/Dollar exchange rate in recent days, the petrol price could even fall in August, if the current exchange rate and oil prices were to continue prevailing . .  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    Fading fears of interest rate hikes in the Us, partly due to declining concerns about Brexit, helping to bring risk on environment supportive of emerging markets again”
    The Rand has gained some 4% in value against the Dollar in the past week, once again largely due to international rather than domestic influences.
    Declining fears of US interest rate hikes has resulted in a "risk on" environment returning to emerging markets. This positive sentiment towards emerging markets has been further helped by declining fears of the UK leaving the EU following today's referendum on the issue. The combination of low interest rate prospects and no Brexit has ignited a rally on global equity markets which has assisted emerging market currencies, especially the Rand.. . .Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “S&P has to decide whether to use carrot or stick: The former is preferable for the good of South Africa”
    Leading credit rating agency Standard and Poor's will announce tonight whether it will go ahead with its threat to downgrade South Africa's credit rating on its foreign denominated bonds. Effectively, this amounts to a decision on whether or not to use the carrot as opposed to the stick on the South African government. The carrot effectively would provide the government with a stay of execution on the grounds that National Treasury is really trying to maintain fiscal discipline and is attempting to improve the management of state-owned enterprises service to limit the potential risk of having to bail out such enterprises which might jeopardise its own solvency. . .Please login to access full article

     

  • Weak US employment data cause Rand to appreciate 2%: Classical manifestation of how it is international financial developments which dominate the SA currency”
    Today's developments relating to the Rand represent a classical example of how it is international financial developments which dominate movements in the Rand more than domestic factors.
    The whole country has been waiting on edge to hear news from Standard and Poor's (S&P) later today on its decision on whether or not to downgrade South Africa's foreign debt credit rating to junk status or not. However, before this announcement has been made, the Rand has appreciated within a matter of hours by 2% (to around R15.30 to the Dollar, from R15.60 earlier in the day), not on any news from S&P, but on the basis of news that US non-farm payrolls increased by just 38,000 in May, way short of even the most pessimistic forecasts. It was the weakest level of employment creation in the US since 2010. Furthermore, the April employment growth figure was revised downwards to 138,000 from 160,000 previously. For the past two years, average employment growth has been over 200,000 per month. . . Please login to access full article

     

  • “Rand depreciates again due to both international and domestic factors: Ambiguous interpretation possible of finance minister's statement”
    Once again, it is tempting to suggest that the most recent 10%-odd depreciation of the Rand against major currencies is a function of domestic political developments surrounding the stature of the National Treasury. However, international factors have also played an important role. Data out of the US have reflected higher inflation than had been expected and a number of real economic indicators have been stronger than anticipated. This has led to renewed expectations of some interest rate increases in the world's largest economy in the second half of the year. In turn, this has contributed towards a renewed flow of funds back into the safe haven of the Dollar and out of emerging markets such as the Rand.
    Domestically, fears surrounding interference in the operations National Treasury by those eager to "capture" the institution so as to divert state coffers for their own benefit have raised fears about the sustainability of fiscal consolidation. This has also contributed towards Rand weakness by casting doubt on the government's ability to prevent credit rating downgrades to junk status. .. Latest From Azar Please login to access full article

     

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Econometrix Park • 8 West Street
Houghton • Johannesburg • 2198
Tel • +27 11 483-1421 
Fax • +27 11 483-2498
sales@econometrix.co.za
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