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Econometrix is South Africa’s leading independent economic consultancy. Our economist team is headed up by Dr Azar Jammine, who has over forty years of experience and is one of the most well-known economists in the country. Econometrix provides economic research that focuses on macro-economic trend analysis (from a South African and global perspective) and in-depth economic forecasts.  We also focus on the analysis of economic trends within the various sectors of the economy.  In addition, we offer interactive economic consultations with companies, presentations, as well as customised research reports. 

 

FLAGSHIP REPORTS EXPERIAN DEBT INDEX
  •   Quarterly Economic Outlook 
    Dr Azar Jammine shares his insights in our latest Q2 report analyses the most recent global and South African economic developments in detail, and gives four-year forecasts of a significant number of domestic and international economic variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

     

  •   Sector Focus
    The Q2 report is now available with economic industry analysis and detailed forecasts of key sector variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Consumer Outlook 
    The Q2 report analyses the latest trends in economic variables that impact directly on the consumer and retail market, and also includes detailed forecasts of key economic variables, consumption expenditure and retail sales.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Automotive Outlook 
    The report focuses on the latest South African and global commercial vehicle and truck market developments.  Forecasts of key economic variables, vehicle sales (passenger cars, LCV, MCV, HCV, XHCV and buses), oil and fuel prices and exchange rates, as well as a List Price Index model (containing a forecast for the escalation rates of top selling passenger and LCV’s), are also included.
    Click here to purchase.

Experian, in partnership with Econometrix, releases South Africa’s Business Debt Index (BDI) – a vital and unprecedented benchmark to interpret the state of business’s debt paying abilities.  The index measures the relative ability for business to pay its outstanding creditors on time and tracks macro-economic indicators that can impact on the ability of companies to pay its creditors.  The BDI is an indication of how the players in the business community in South Africa are settling their credit arrangements with suppliers – in other words, it is a reflection of the overall health of businesses.
For the latest BDI release click here
For a more detailed report regarding debt stress in South Africa by sector, please contact our sales team.

 

LATEST REPORTS

  • Consumer Market Trends: CPI Inflation rates for income/LSM groups: September.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Retail goods inflation: December 2015.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Retail sales: August 2015.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Food and beverages industry income report: August 2015.10.28

     

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  • Printing Trends: CPI Inflation rates for income/LSM groups: May 2015
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  • Consumer Market Trends: Retail sales: November 2015.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: 1st qtr QES: Due to structural impediments, economy continues to shed jobs whilst still growing moderately.
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  • EcoBulletin: Oversold Rand assisted by downward revision of US rate hike expectations and positive talk by Finance Minister and government interaction with Business Leaders.

     
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  • Revs Newsletter: Vehicle sales growth softens further in January, in comparison with end of 2015 sales growth which was boosted by heavy incentives and pre-emptive buying.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: 2015 MTBPS: Nene's good first effort conveys determination to constrain growth in government expenditure to limit increases in public debt.
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  • Financial Markets: Ratings agencies ringing the alarm bells

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Reserve bank leading indicator continues its downward trend in August, but thankfully only marginally, suggesting recession might yet be avoided

     

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  • Financial Markets: ECB policy and the MTBPS the major focusses of the week.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Private credit growth modest in September, but not collapsing, with mortgages accelerating as credit for durable goods subsides.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Improved growth in motor trade sales in November.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Rise in petrol price at midnight due to depreciation of Rand exchange rate.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Food and beverages industry income report: August 2015.10.28
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  • Consumer Market Trends: Retail goods inflation: September 2015.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Sharp increase in transport goods and services inflation in December.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Transunion consumer credit index suggests the financial health of indebted consumers may not have been all that bad in the 4th qtr.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: December government finance figures suggest budget deficit for 2015/16 should easily be achieved mainly due to sale of Vodacom, but challenge lies in coming years.

     

     
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  • Ecobulletin: Short-term success in fiscal discipline allows Fitch rating agency to buy South African government still more time to restructure to boost growth

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  • Financial Markets: Sizeable event risk for SA in week of zero Chinese market liquidity.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Vehicle sales growth softens further in January, in comparison with end of 2015 sales growth which was boosted by heavy incentives and pre-emptive buying.

     

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  • Financial Markets: Holiday-thinned week leaves markets side-lined for now.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Monthly review of key developments - Jan 2016.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Vehicle sales growth softens further in January, in comparison with end of 2015 sales growth which was boosted by heavy incentives and pre-emptive buying.

     

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  • EcoBulletin:Extreme pessimism reflected in PMI points to probability of recession in 2016
     
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  • Financial Markets: Fed policy minutes the major focus this week
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  • Printing Trends: Liquidations: June 2015.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Rise in petrol price at midnight due to depreciation of Rand exchange rate.

     

     
     
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  • Printing Trends: Debt default indicators for individuals: May 2015.

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  • EcoBulletin: Although petrol price to rise by only 7 cl on Wednesday, February CPI inflation to rise 1.2% compared with December because of statistical factors.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: International pulp and paper price report - October 2015.

     

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  • Printing Trends: Monthly review of key developments - October 2015.
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  • EcoBulletin: Electricity supply and demand continued to recover in December, but increased electricity imports have helped to stave off load shedding.

     

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  • Financial Markets: Debt default indicators for individuals: November 2015.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Review of key developments - January 2016.

     

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  • Latest From Azar
    “EU spat over Greece might have inflicted lasting damage on vision of united Europe and European economy.” The decision reached at the final minute by Eurozone leaders to provide a third bailout package to Greece in return for harsh corrective measures in the latter, has prevented the Eurozone from breaking up. The Greek Prime Minister is being accused by some of his erstwhile supporters of going back on promises he had made to resist such corrective measures.  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    "Hopefully useful advice for minister of finance ahead of next month's budget from private-sector economists" On the invitation of the Minister of Finance, Pravin Gordhan, a group of private-sector economists, including ourselves, were invited to provide guidance and input for Treasury, presumably ahead of his attendance at the World Economic Forum at Davos and more importantly, before next month's National Budget.   Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    "Why Gordhan's suggestion of no recession in 2016 is misguided and why he might need to adjust this statement next month." It is reported in the media that Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan suggested on Thursday that South Africa would not slide into recession in 2016. Presumably, this statement was made prior to our meeting with the Minister in which we expressed the view that a recession was indeed on the cards. Essentially, there is a problem with the latest official forecasts of the various institutions, including Treasury.   Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Why Zuma's comments at ANC birthday celebration and in interview thereafter may be exacerbating the fall in the Rand” The Rand has fallen dramatically further again to yet another all-time low. However, President Zuma made it clear in an interview that he does not believe that the fall in the Rand is attributable to his redeployment of Nhlanhla Nene from the Finance Ministry. He is quite right that there are other factors contributing towards the South African currency's plummet.   Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Strong US employment numbers threaten to force Reserve Bank to raise repo rate by a full 0.5%” Deteriorating inflation expectations in recent weeks have made it highly probable that the Reserve Bank will raise the repo rate again at its forthcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in a fortnight's time. Unfortunately, such expectations were exacerbated on Friday by the announcement of a far bigger than expected increase in the number of jobs created in the US in December.   Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Intensification of drought has raised probability of recession in 2016 to high: GDP growth forecasts need to be downgraded yet again to below 1% and possibly negative” The record temperatures being seen in the North of the country, with little rain, are not only physically uncomfortable, but will have far-reaching effects on overall economic growth. The current drought is equal to the worst seen in our lifetimes. Historically, such droughts have been characterised by negative growth rates, e.g. in 1982 and 1992. The experience of 2016 is likely to be no different. . .   Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Concerted attempts at trying to repair damage and avoid credit ratings downgrades, but how can ideological fault lines be overcome?” National Treasury appears to have persuaded the government that it is imperative to avoid a threatened downgrade to the country's credit rating to junk status. Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan has gone out of his way to convey determination to stick to fiscal plans to reduce the budget deficit and limit the increase in the public debt. Furthermore, in his Budget speech later this month, Gordhan will attempt to persuade the investor public in a credible way that fiscal discipline is seriously going to be implemented

     

  • "State Of The Nation Address: How can Zuma reconcile desires of business and ratings agencies with those of the people?"
    President Zuma faces an enormous challenge with his State of the Nation address in Parliament on Thursday. Business and investor confidence has been shattered over the past year. Zuma's own contribution to this deterioration in the economic outlook has not been insignificant. The deteriorating economic outlook itself carries the risk of a downgrade in the country's credit rating which could have very adverse further consequences for the economic outlook, if it were to materialise. Therefore, one wonders what Zuma could say that could improve business confidence and reduce the probability of a credit rating downgrade? Other than standing down from his position, it is difficult to see any scope for the President to make a positive contribution with his speech.

    Latest From Azar

     

  • "What are the chances of SA's growth turning out to be higher than 1% in 2016? "It was reported over the weekend that Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa suggested that the government would pull out all stops to ensure that the economy grew by more than the sub-1% growth rate being forecast by the IMF and World Bank for the South African economy in 2016. In support of trying to generate better than expected growth and ensure that South Africa's credit rating is not downgraded, government would appear to have embarked upon a major charm and communication offensive with business leaders to introduce programmes that would ensure an improved outcome. Latest From Azar

     

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Econometrix Park • 8 West Street
Houghton • Johannesburg • 2198
Tel • +27 11 483-1421 
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