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Econometrix is South Africa’s leading independent economic consultancy. Our economist team is headed up by Dr Azar Jammine, who has over forty years of experience and is one of the most well-known economists in the country. Econometrix provides economic research that focuses on macro-economic trend analysis (from a South African and global perspective) and in-depth economic forecasts.  We also focus on the analysis of economic trends within the various sectors of the economy.  In addition, we offer interactive economic consultations with companies, presentations, as well as customised research reports. 

 

FLAGSHIP REPORTS EXPERIAN DEBT INDEX
  •   Quarterly Economic Outlook 
    Dr Azar Jammine shares his insights in our latest Q2 report analyses the most recent global and South African economic developments in detail, and gives four-year forecasts of a significant number of domestic and international economic variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

     

  •   Sector Focus
    The Q2 report is now available with economic industry analysis and detailed forecasts of key sector variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Consumer Outlook 
    The Q2 report analyses the latest trends in economic variables that impact directly on the consumer and retail market, and also includes detailed forecasts of key economic variables, consumption expenditure and retail sales.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Automotive Outlook 
    The report focuses on the latest South African and global commercial vehicle and truck market developments.  Forecasts of key economic variables, vehicle sales (passenger cars, LCV, MCV, HCV, XHCV and buses), oil and fuel prices and exchange rates, as well as a List Price Index model (containing a forecast for the escalation rates of top selling passenger and LCV’s), are also included.
    Click here to purchase.

Experian, in partnership with Econometrix, releases South Africa’s Business Debt Index (BDI) – a vital and unprecedented benchmark to interpret the state of business’s debt paying abilities.  The index measures the relative ability for business to pay its outstanding creditors on time and tracks macro-economic indicators that can impact on the ability of companies to pay its creditors.  The BDI is an indication of how the players in the business community in South Africa are settling their credit arrangements with suppliers – in other words, it is a reflection of the overall health of businesses.
For the latest BDI release click here
For a more detailed report regarding debt stress in South Africa by sector, please contact our sales team.

 

LATEST REPORTS

  • Consumer Market Trends: Consumer Market Trends - Monthly review - April 2016.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Leading indicator declines in February which suggests possibility of recession in 2016.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Debt default indicators for individuals: February 2016.

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  • EcoBulletin: Bigger-than-expected decline in PPI inflation in March enhances the likelihood of no rate hike next month, but may not prevent further hikes later.

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Tourism spending in South Africa, 2014.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Debt default indicators for individuals: February 2016.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: EcoBulletin: Brisk growth in unsecured lending in March supports the view of the economy not collapsing: Supports case for further rate hikes in due course.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Rand and oil prices continue to strengthen in April.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Household credit growth moderates in nearly all sub categories.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: PPI inflation for transport equipment remains elevated in March.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Rand and oil prices continue to strengthen in April.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Slight decline in demand for accommodation in February, but demand expected to edge upwards in coming months.

     

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  •  EcoBulletin: Reassuring improvement in residential building plans passed in February.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Growth rates in compulsory and voluntary company liquidations in March depressed as businesses file for business rescue instead of liquidation

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Unfortunately, for consumers, price of petrol set to increase in May.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Household credit growth moderates in nearly all sub categories.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Margins of most major retailers contract in March.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: PPI inflation for transport equipment rises to highest level on record.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Total media adspend growth accelerated in February.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Sensible MPC statement illustrates why there no reason to change forecast of a further 0.5% increase in interest rates over the coming year.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Given the high number of public holidays in March this year, building plans passed figures encouragingly strong.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Total media adspend growth moderated in January.
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  • Financial Markets: ZAR volatility in focus at the start of the week, SARB decision nears.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Retail sales: February 2016.

     

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  • Financial Markets: Fed and BoJ policy meetings the major events this week.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Rand and oil prices continue to strengthen in April.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: April inflation remains low as expected, assisting stay of execution for interest rate hikes, but likely to rise in the second half of year.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Rand's performance over the past month more or less in line with other currencies.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: International Pulp and Paper Price Report - April 2016.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Total media adspend growth accelerated in February.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Consumer goods and services down despite JSE improvement in April. 

     

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  • Printing Trends: Monthly Review - April 2016.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Retail sales growth slows in March, but interpretation of weakness unclear given spate of public holidays.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Transport inflation moderates sharply in March.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Transport inflation registers a marginal moderation in April.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Statistical decline in growth rates for civil cases for debt for private persons and business enterprises mask underlying deterioration of balance sheets.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Growth in motor trade sales reverses sharply in March.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Growth in motor trade sales reverses sharply in March.

     

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  • Latest From Azar
    “Downward revision of the IMF global growth forecasts highlights insufficiently recognised cause of low South African economic growth: It is not all due to Zuma.”
    Given the depressed level of domestic business confidence related to the domestic economy's progressive underperformance in recent years, it is tempting to lay most of the blame on domestic factors. The most high profile domestic reason to account for low growth is linked to the impact of President Zuma's contribution to perceived "state capture" and the increase in corruption and incompetence associated with it.
    It is tempting to attribute the further downgrade of growth forecasts for the South African economy by the IMF just announced to be a case in point. However, such a domestically oriented view of the state of the South African economy overlooks the exceptionally important role which the progressive underperformance of the global economy has had to play in the domestic economy's underperformance. Whereas the IMF has reduced South Africa's economic growth forecast by a further -0.1% for 2016, to just 0.6%, it has reduced its forecast for global economic growth by -0.2%. Cumulatively, the forecast for global growth has been reduced by more than a half of the downward revision of growth for the South African economy over the past four years. Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    "Hopefully useful advice for minister of finance ahead of next month's budget from private-sector economists" On the invitation of the Minister of Finance, Pravin Gordhan, a group of private-sector economists, including ourselves, were invited to provide guidance and input for Treasury, presumably ahead of his attendance at the World Economic Forum at Davos and more importantly, before next month's National Budget.   Please login to access full article

     

  • “South Africa's decline to third-ranked amongst African nations in perspective”                                                                                                
    Shock has been expressed this week at news that South Africa's GDP has now declined to the point where the country's economy is the third- largest in Africa, down from being the largest two years ago. Egypt has overtaken South Africa in terms of the Dollar value of its GDP. Is this cause for alarm? The answer is ambivalent.
    There are three main reasons to account for the downgrade of South Africa's economic size. Firstly, a year ago Nigeria re-based the calculation of its GDP upwards by 60%. Secondly and most importantly in terms of the current debate, a freely-floating Rand has depreciated by more than a half against the Dollar over the past five years, whereas the central banks of Nigeria and Egypt have been managing their exchange rates artificially. As a result, the South African GDP measured in Dollars has plummeted relative to the other two big African economies. Thirdly, South Africa's economic growth has lagged behind that of both Nigeria and Egypt on a sustained basis for long enough for this to start having an important impact on relative size. . .  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Constitutional court ruling can do good for credit rating and outlook for the Rand, interest rates and inflation”
    It is unclear as to how much of the Rand's appreciation in the past few days and today specifically has been brought about by anticipation of and the outcome relating to the Constitutional Court hearing on the failure of President Zuma to abide by the Public Protector's ruling on paying back money used for non-security upgrades of his Nkandla private homestead. Most of the currency's appreciation has had more to do with Dollar weakness and increased emerging market risk appetite than with domestic political and legal issues.
    Nonetheless, the ruling stating that the President broke his oath of office to support the Constitution by not adhering to the Public Protector's ruling can only be seen as positive for the country's judiciary's image of independence. In turn, this supports notions of key institutions being upheld and of a vibrant democracy still being in place. . . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Failure to reach output freeze on oil depresses markets and the Rand”
    Following a fairly strong trend in recent weeks, the Rand's upward trend appears to have been reversed at least temporarily in recent days.
    One of the main reasons for this reversal has been failure on the part of OPEC and Russia to reach agreement on restricting output of crude oil. This has resulted in a decline in crude oil prices and weakened risk appetite for emerging markets more generally. . .  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    Reluctance to recall Zuma and tirade of accusations of state capture against big business argue against major recovery in the Rand”
    Despite criticism of "state capture" by the ANC, the apparent willingness of the organisation to countenance continuing to be led by President Zuma is likely to limit any potential gains in the Rand from an oversold position.
    What is also likely to weigh down on an improvement in business confidence is the growing claim that state capture is not the preserve of the Gupta family alone, but of big businesses more generally securing contracts with public sector bodies by exploiting networks with connected politicians. There is also affirmation of continued commitment to enforcing Black Economic Empowerment policies more rigidly than before. Much of the build-up of goodwill between the government and private sector in recent times geared towards improving economic growth, stands to be undone by this new backlash. . .Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Malema's irresponsible comments on the need for more black babies instead of for improved basic education”
    One is absolutely appalled at the call of the leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), Julius Malema, for Blacks to make more babies so as to avoid being overtaken by Whites demographically and in so doing ceding power to the latter race group.
    Firstly, ignorance regarding the demographic breakdown of the country's population by race, is unbelievable in the sense that already over the past 13 years, the increase in the Black African population has been almost double the absolute size of the White population. . .Please login to access full article

     

  • "Rand's depreciation on S&P warning on political turmoil suggests credit ratings downgrades not fully discounted yet”
    As expected in the wake of President Zuma's apology for not respecting appropriately the Constitutional Court's ruling on his response to the Public Protector's findings on the upgrades to his Nkandla homestead, the realisation that the President had no intention of resigning, started causing the Rand to weaken from three-month highs reached earlier last week.
    The Rand has since lost further ground on the back of a statement by Standard and Poor's (S&P) credit rating agency that political turmoil could jeopardise the country's credit rating. . . Please login to access full article

     

  • “Rand depreciates again due to both international and domestic factors: Ambiguous interpretation possible of finance minister's statement”
    Once again, it is tempting to suggest that the most recent 10%-odd depreciation of the Rand against major currencies is a function of domestic political developments surrounding the stature of the National Treasury. However, international factors have also played an important role. Data out of the US have reflected higher inflation than had been expected and a number of real economic indicators have been stronger than anticipated. This has led to renewed expectations of some interest rate increases in the world's largest economy in the second half of the year. In turn, this has contributed towards a renewed flow of funds back into the safe haven of the Dollar and out of emerging markets such as the Rand.
    Domestically, fears surrounding interference in the operations National Treasury by those eager to "capture" the institution so as to divert state coffers for their own benefit have raised fears about the sustainability of fiscal consolidation. This has also contributed towards Rand weakness by casting doubt on the government's ability to prevent credit rating downgrades to junk status. .. Latest From Azar Please login to access full article

     

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Econometrix Park • 8 West Street
Houghton • Johannesburg • 2198
Tel • +27 11 483-1421 
Fax • +27 11 483-2498
sales@econometrix.co.za
info@econometrix.co.za