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Econometrix is South Africa’s leading independent economic consultancy. Our economist team is headed up by Dr Azar Jammine, who has over forty years of experience and is one of the most well-known economists in the country. Econometrix provides economic research that focuses on macro-economic trend analysis (from a South African and global perspective) and in-depth economic forecasts.  We also focus on the analysis of economic trends within the various sectors of the economy.  In addition, we offer interactive economic consultations with companies, presentations, as well as customised research reports. 

 

FLAGSHIP REPORTS EXPERIAN DEBT INDEX
  •   Quarterly Economic Outlook 
    Dr Azar Jammine shares his insights in our latest Q2 report analyses the most recent global and South African economic developments in detail, and gives four-year forecasts of a significant number of domestic and international economic variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

     

  •   Sector Focus
    The Q2 report is now available with economic industry analysis and detailed forecasts of key sector variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Consumer Outlook 
    The Q2 report analyses the latest trends in economic variables that impact directly on the consumer and retail market, and also includes detailed forecasts of key economic variables, consumption expenditure and retail sales.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Automotive Outlook 
    The report focuses on the latest South African and global commercial vehicle and truck market developments.  Forecasts of key economic variables, vehicle sales (passenger cars, LCV, MCV, HCV, XHCV and buses), oil and fuel prices and exchange rates, as well as a List Price Index model (containing a forecast for the escalation rates of top selling passenger and LCV’s), are also included.
    Click here to purchase.

Experian, in partnership with Econometrix, releases South Africa’s Business Debt Index (BDI) – a vital and unprecedented benchmark to interpret the state of business’s debt paying abilities.  The index measures the relative ability for business to pay its outstanding creditors on time and tracks macro-economic indicators that can impact on the ability of companies to pay its creditors.  The BDI is an indication of how the players in the business community in South Africa are settling their credit arrangements with suppliers – in other words, it is a reflection of the overall health of businesses.
For the latest BDI release click here
For a more detailed report regarding debt stress in South Africa by sector, please contact our sales team.

 

LATEST REPORTS

  • Consumer Market Trends: Sharp rise in petrol price as consumers come under increased pressure financially.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Total media adspend growth moderated in January.

     

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  • Financial Markets: Sentiment toward the ZAR turning more positive.

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  • Consumer Market Trends:Retail goods inflation: February 2016.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Tourism spending in South Africa, 2014.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Y/y growth in income from food and beverages moderates in January.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Tourism spending in South Africa, 2014

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: A tough economic year ahead, 2017 should bring some improvement.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Rand strengthens considerably in March, oil prices start to rise.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Tourism spending in South Africa, 2014.

     

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  • Financial Markets: Ratings agencies ringing the alarm bells

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Amazing strength in December retail sales growth heightens probability of interest rate hike in March.

     

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  •  EcoBulletin: Decline in leading indicator in January to lowest level since global financial recession increases likelihood of recession.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: 2016 Budget and associated speech are as positive as could have been hoped for: Nonetheless, scepticism regarding delivery of promises will remain.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: A few core sub-sectors are still driving consumer goods and services.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Household credit growth increases, driven by mortgage advances and overdrafts.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Consumer Market Trends - Monthly review - March 2016.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: PPI inflation for transport equipment rises to highest level on record.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Margins of most major retailers continue to contract in February.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Retail sales growth declines in January, but not weak enough to deter Reserve Bank from hiking interest rates.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Huge increase in vehicle exports and in precious metals prices boosts trade balance in February: Favourable for Rand and interest-rate prospects.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Total media adspend growth moderated in January.
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  • Financial Markets: Local political dynamics to be viewed against global economic backdrop.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: A tough economic year ahead, 2017 should bring some improvement.

     

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  • Financial Markets: Market liquidity to return to normal post Easter break.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: A tough economic year ahead, 2017 should bring some improvement.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Sharp decline in vehicle sales in March driven mainly by configuration of public holidays: Not a true reflection of economic weakness.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Rand's performance over the past month more or less in line with other currencies.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Total media adspend growth moderated in January.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Liquidations: February 2016.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Sharp decline in vehicle sales in March driven mainly by configuration of public holidays: not a true reflection of economic weakness.

     

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  • Printing Trends: Paper & Printing Trends - Monthly Review - March 2016.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Growth in voluntary company liquidations rise sharply in February as businesses come under increased financial pressure.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Debt default indicators for individuals: January 2016

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Sharp decline in vehicle sales in March driven mainly by configuration of public holidays: not a true reflection of economic weakness.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Encouraging uptick in demand for accommodation in January following the downward trend in the demand for accommodation witnessed in 2015.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Sharp rise in petrol price as consumers come under increased pressure financially.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Debt default indicators for individuals: January 2016.

     

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  • Latest From Azar
    “Downward revision of the IMF global growth forecasts highlights insufficiently recognised cause of low South African economic growth: It is not all due to Zuma.”
    Given the depressed level of domestic business confidence related to the domestic economy's progressive underperformance in recent years, it is tempting to lay most of the blame on domestic factors. The most high profile domestic reason to account for low growth is linked to the impact of President Zuma's contribution to perceived "state capture" and the increase in corruption and incompetence associated with it.
    It is tempting to attribute the further downgrade of growth forecasts for the South African economy by the IMF just announced to be a case in point. However, such a domestically oriented view of the state of the South African economy overlooks the exceptionally important role which the progressive underperformance of the global economy has had to play in the domestic economy's underperformance. Whereas the IMF has reduced South Africa's economic growth forecast by a further -0.1% for 2016, to just 0.6%, it has reduced its forecast for global economic growth by -0.2%. Cumulatively, the forecast for global growth has been reduced by more than a half of the downward revision of growth for the South African economy over the past four years. Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    "Hopefully useful advice for minister of finance ahead of next month's budget from private-sector economists" On the invitation of the Minister of Finance, Pravin Gordhan, a group of private-sector economists, including ourselves, were invited to provide guidance and input for Treasury, presumably ahead of his attendance at the World Economic Forum at Davos and more importantly, before next month's National Budget.   Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “ANC’s NEC does little to help case for prevention of credit rating downgrade”
    One of the primary concerns of credit rating agencies in assessing the credit worthiness of South African government bonds is the potential for South Africa's debt metrics to deteriorate due to so-called "state capture", whereby private individuals or companies arrange deals with public sector bodies that might impair government's ability to contain its expenditure.
    In this regard, the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the ANC met over the weekend to try to placate such concerns. In particular, there have been concerns that President Zuma has been influenced into making Cabinet appointments by the Gupta family which might impair government's drive to contain its finances. Although the NEC berated the family and the media it controls for sowing divisions within the ANC, it expressed its full support for Zuma to stay on as President. This seemingly contradictory stance is unlikely to allay fears about the government's ability to enforce fiscal discipline of the kind needed to rein in the public debt. . .  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Constitutional court ruling can do good for credit rating and outlook for the Rand, interest rates and inflation”
    It is unclear as to how much of the Rand's appreciation in the past few days and today specifically has been brought about by anticipation of and the outcome relating to the Constitutional Court hearing on the failure of President Zuma to abide by the Public Protector's ruling on paying back money used for non-security upgrades of his Nkandla private homestead. Most of the currency's appreciation has had more to do with Dollar weakness and increased emerging market risk appetite than with domestic political and legal issues.
    Nonetheless, the ruling stating that the President broke his oath of office to support the Constitution by not adhering to the Public Protector's ruling can only be seen as positive for the country's judiciary's image of independence. In turn, this supports notions of key institutions being upheld and of a vibrant democracy still being in place. . . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Why Reserve Bank Is Likely To Increase The Repo Rate By 0.25% Despite Low Growth Environment”
    Despite calls by some on the Reserve Bank to refrain from increasing interest rates further in the face of abysmal economic growth, the Bank is still expected to raise the repo rate by 0.25% at the conclusion of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting currently underway.The Bank will feel it is essential to continue dampening longer-term inflationary expectations in the wake of the inflationary pressures generated by the steep depreciation of the Rand over the past five months. It will also derived some confidence for such a move by noting an element of success in its efforts thus far in the form of a decline in long-term interest rates since the beginning of the year.  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    Reluctance to recall Zuma and tirade of accusations of state capture against big business argue against major recovery in the Rand”
    Despite criticism of "state capture" by the ANC, the apparent willingness of the organisation to countenance continuing to be led by President Zuma is likely to limit any potential gains in the Rand from an oversold position.
    What is also likely to weigh down on an improvement in business confidence is the growing claim that state capture is not the preserve of the Gupta family alone, but of big businesses more generally securing contracts with public sector bodies by exploiting networks with connected politicians. There is also affirmation of continued commitment to enforcing Black Economic Empowerment policies more rigidly than before. Much of the build-up of goodwill between the government and private sector in recent times geared towards improving economic growth, stands to be undone by this new backlash. . .Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Despite expected petrol price increase of more than 90Cl next week, short-term inflation outlook positive, making it difficult for reserve bank to hike rates in May”
    Unfortunately for consumers, the petrol price is expected to be hiked by around 92 cl on Wednesday next week. An increase in the fuel levy, as well as an increase in the fuel pipeline levy, coupled with a recovery in international oil prices, is likely to bring about such an increase.Despite such a big increase, the impact on the headline CPI inflation rate ironically will be to drive it downwards. This is because in April last year the petrol price was increased by an even greater R1.62 per litre. Furthermore, the downward pressure on April CPI inflation is likely to be preceded by a similar downward movement in March CPI inflation for an analogous statistical reason linked to the sharp increase in fuel prices a year earlier. . .Please login to access full article

     

  • "Rand's depreciation on S&P warning on political turmoil suggests credit ratings downgrades not fully discounted yet”
    As expected in the wake of President Zuma's apology for not respecting appropriately the Constitutional Court's ruling on his response to the Public Protector's findings on the upgrades to his Nkandla homestead, the realisation that the President had no intention of resigning, started causing the Rand to weaken from three-month highs reached earlier last week.
    The Rand has since lost further ground on the back of a statement by Standard and Poor's (S&P) credit rating agency that political turmoil could jeopardise the country's credit rating. . . Please login to access full article

     

  • “Monetary Policy Forum provides rationale for why interest rates stand to rise further”
    The Monetary Policy Forum held at the South African Reserve Bank on Monday outlined much of the Reserve Bank's analytical thinking as to why it has raised interest rates and why these stand to rise further. These can be summarised as follows:
    The Bank is intent on a gradual tightening of monetary policy. More generally, it is of the view that emerging markets are vulnerable to further capital outflows which could raise their inflation rates further and compel additional monetary tightening. . .. Latest From Azar Please login to access full article

     

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Econometrix Park • 8 West Street
Houghton • Johannesburg • 2198
Tel • +27 11 483-1421 
Fax • +27 11 483-2498
sales@econometrix.co.za
info@econometrix.co.za