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Econometrix is South Africa’s leading independent economic consultancy. Our economist team is headed up by Dr Azar Jammine, who has over forty years of experience and is one of the most well-known economists in the country. Econometrix provides economic research that focuses on macro-economic trend analysis (from a South African and global perspective) and in-depth economic forecasts.  We also focus on the analysis of economic trends within the various sectors of the economy.  In addition, we offer interactive economic consultations with companies, presentations, as well as customised research reports. 

FLAGSHIP REPORTS EXPERIAN DEBT INDEX
  •   Quarterly Economic Outlook 
    Dr Azar Jammine shares his insights in our latest Q1 report analyses the most recent global and South African economic developments in detail, and gives four-year forecasts of a significant number of domestic and international economic variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

     

  •   Sector Focus
    The Q1 report is now available with economic industry analysis and detailed forecasts of key sector variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Consumer Outlook 
    The Q1 report analyses the latest trends in economic variables that impact directly on the consumer and retail market, and also includes detailed forecasts of key economic variables, consumption expenditure and retail sales.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Automotive Outlook 
    The report focuses on the latest South African and global commercial vehicle and truck market developments.  Forecasts of key economic variables, vehicle sales (passenger cars, LCV, MCV, HCV, XHCV and buses), oil and fuel prices and exchange rates, as well as a List Price Index model (containing a forecast for the escalation rates of top selling passenger and LCV’s), are also included.
    Click here to purchase.

Experian, in partnership with Econometrix, releases South Africa’s Business Debt Index (BDI) – a vital and unprecedented benchmark to interpret the state of business’s debt paying abilities.  The index measures the relative ability for business to pay its outstanding creditors on time and tracks macro-economic indicators that can impact on the ability of companies to pay its creditors.  The BDI is an indication of how the players in the business community in South Africa are settling their credit arrangements with suppliers – in other words, it is a reflection of the overall health of businesses.
For the latest BDI release click here
For a more detailed report regarding debt stress in South Africa by sector, please contact our sales team.

 

LATEST REPORTS

  • EcoBulletin: Ominous acceleration in decline in leading indicator in May suggests economy headed for sharper-than-expected slowdown in sustainable growth.
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  • Consumer Market Trends: Retail sales: May 2015.
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  • EcoBulletin: Decline in demand for accommodation in May not as great as previous month but downward trend expected to continue in coming months.
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  • Financial Markets: Central bank policy week with BoE, RBA and BoJ releasing minutes
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  • Printing Trends: CPI Inflation rates for income/LSM groups: May 2015
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  • EcoBulletin: July petrol price hike due to lower Rand and higher oil price, but full inflationary effect only to start emerging in 4th qtr.
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  • EcoBulletin: 1st qtr QES: Due to structural impediments, economy continues to shed jobs whilst still growing moderately.
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  • Paper and Printing Trends: Estimated margins of paper producers, printers and publishers: June 2015.
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  • Paper and Printing Trends: Consumer prices for books, newspapers and stationery on the rise.
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  • EcoBulletin: Petrol price to decline by -51c/l on Wednesday.
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  • EcoBulletin: Money supply growth increases whilst private credit extension growth declines but no change to outlook for inflation.
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  • EcoBulletin: 2nd Qtr employment creation deceivingly impressive: Formal job creation weak and still lagging far behind GDP growth, compensated for by jump in informal employment creation.
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  • Consumer Market Trends: Double digit increase in TV adspend lifts media adspend in May.
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  • Financial Markets: Slowing China, hawkish Fed.
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  • Consumer Market Trends: CPI Inflation rates for income/LSM groups: June 2015
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  • Revs News Letter: Increase in petrol prices edges up transport inflation in June
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  • Consumer Market Trends: Petrol price set to decline on 5 August for first time since February.
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  • Consumer Market Trends: Retail goods inflation: June 2015

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Food and beverages industry income report: May 2015
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  • Consumer Market Trends: Deflation in consumer prices for furniture items squeeze margins of furniture retailers in June.

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  • EcoBulletin: Three trade surpluses in last four months indicate positive effects of falling oil prices finally coming through trade balance.

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  • Ecobulletin: Short-term success in fiscal discipline allows Fitch rating agency to buy South African government still more time to restructure to boost growth

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  • EcoBulletin: Beneficial impact of falling oil price on inflation to be neutralised by impact of Chinese devaluation on the Rand.

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  • EcoBulletin: Zuma's report back on economic progress will do little to inspire a return to higher growth.

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  • EcoBulletin: Mixed response of Rand to news flow from the US and China: Chinese devaluation a good excuse for a commodity price rally.

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  • EcoBulletin: Manufacturing production remains weak in June, albeit with growth slightly less negative than in May.

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Debt default indicators for individuals: May 2015.
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  • Consumer Market Trends: Liquidations: June 2015

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  • EcoBulletin: Because of the improvement in trade balance, Rand could rally over the next few months despite falling reserves.

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  • Printing Trends: Liquidations: June 2015.

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Food and beverages industry income report: April 2015

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  • Printing Trends: Debt default indicators for individuals: May 2015.

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  • EcoBulletin: M-o-m seasonally adjusted growth rates in electricity consumption and production positive in June as incidence of load shedding declines in June compared with May.

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Petrol price declined by -51c/l on Wednesday after having risen significantly in recent months.

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  • Revs Newsletter: Monthly Review of Key Developments - July 2015.

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  • Revs Newsletter: Petrol price declined by -51c/l on Wednesday after having risen significantly in recent months.

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  • EcoBulletin: Mixed outcome for building plans passed in April: Trendless overall performance.

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  • EcoBulletin: Reassuringly for manufacturing outlook, July PMI holds up unchanged despite several negative headwinds from abroad and domestically.

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  • Latest From Azar
    “EU spat over Greece might have inflicted lasting damage on vision of united Europe and European economy.” The decision reached at the final minute by Eurozone leaders to provide a third bailout package to Greece in return for harsh corrective measures in the latter, has prevented the Eurozone from breaking up. The Greek Prime Minister is being accused by some of his erstwhile supporters of going back on promises he had made to resist such corrective measures.  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Fallout from Greek debt crisis should not be underestimated, even in SA; this could be the start of the end of the EU” The breakdown of talks aimed at preventing Greece from defaulting on its debts has potentially enormous implications not only for Greeks, but for financial markets, the integrity of the European Union (EU) itself and ultimately for the global economy. To some extent, the climax surrounding the Greek default was inevitable given the inability of the countries involved in the Eurozone to invoke fiscal union in addition to monetary union. Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    Relief at wage agreement reached with public servants; it should not jeopardise South Africa's credit ratings. Not surprisingly, but reassuringly, the stand-off between the government and public sector unions over the three-year wage agreement, has been resolved. The clause which compelled the government to claw back 0.6% of the 7% wage increase originally agreed upon for this year, on the basis of the fact that the CPI inflation rate had turned out to be lower than what had been incorporated into the clause at the time, was revoked.   Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “No need to revise inflation forecasts following NERSA decision not to grant Eskom's request for tariff increase.” The decision by NERSA to reject Eskom's request for a further 12.6% electricity tariff increase for 2015/16, which was subsequently revised down to 9.2%, implies that our current inflation forecast does not have to be adjusted upwards. We suspect, however, that Eskom will put in another bid to have the existing five-year agreement to raise electricity tariffs by 8% per annum through to 2019. Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    NERSA likely to grant a small portion of Eskom's request for tariff hike, but extend this into a multi-year award. The details surrounding the decision due to be announced on Monday by NERSA regarding the award of Eskom's request for an additional 12.6% tariff hike are likely to have important implications for the medium term path of inflation. Amidst the huge amount of opposition to such an additional tariff increase, it seems doubtful whether NERSA will go ahead with granting Eskom's full request. Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    Discussion On Industrial Policy At Reserve Bank Roundtable Sheds Light On Weaknesses Of Policy: The Reserve Bank's bimonthly economic Roundtable discussion on Friday 19th June dealt with Industrial Policy (IP). The message which came out clearly was that the outcomes of such policy have really been quite disappointing with the share of manufacturing within the overall economy halving over the past quarter century and employment levels declining by almost a third.  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    How Bad Will Fuel, Food And Electricity Price Shocks Be In July? : A number of factors are likely to contribute towards a substantial increase in inflation in July, most notably from fuel, food and electricity. The average under-recovery on petrol thus far this month points to a potential increase in petrol prices of more than 50 cl at the beginning of July. This is more than had been hoped for a few weeks ago and is largely attributable to the depreciation in the Rand/Dollar exchange rate. On its own, it stands to lift the y-o-y CPI inflation rate by 0.5%.. Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    Reflections On Monetary Policy Forum: Reasons To Be More Bearish About Possible Interest Rate Hikes: Although a week has already passed since the Monetary Policy Forum (MPF) for Gauteng took place at the Reserve Bank in the first week of June, it is still relevant to comment on the presentation made by the Reserve Bank surrounding its Monetary Policy Review and to reflect on some of the questions put to the Bank at the Forum and the answers given. There can be no doubt that the emphasis was on why the risk is of interest rates rising and doing so more steeply than had previously been built into projections by analysts. . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    Short-Term Success In Fiscal Discipline Allows Fitch Rating Agency To Buy South African Government Still More Time To Restructure To Boost Growth: As we have been expecting over the past six months as the government has succeeded in reducing its budget deficit and arriving at a wage agreement with public sector trade unions, Fitch rating agency refrained from downgrading the country's credit rating from 2 to 1 notch above junk status. This should provide some reassurance to financial markets, especially since there appeared to be several analysts who had anticipated that the agency would indeed proceed with a ratings downgrade. Please login to access full article

     

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Econometrix Park • 8 West Street
Houghton • Johannesburg • 2198
Tel • +27 11 483-1421 
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info@econometrix.co.za