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Econometrix is South Africa’s leading independent economic consultancy. Our economist team is headed up by Dr Azar Jammine, who has over forty years of experience and is one of the most well-known economists in the country. Econometrix provides economic research that focuses on macro-economic trend analysis (from a South African and global perspective) and in-depth economic forecasts.  We also focus on the analysis of economic trends within the various sectors of the economy.  In addition, we offer interactive economic consultations with companies, presentations, as well as customised research reports. 

 

FLAGSHIP REPORTS EXPERIAN DEBT INDEX
  •   Quarterly Economic Outlook 
    Dr Azar Jammine shares his insights in our latest Q2 report analyses the most recent global and South African economic developments in detail, and gives four-year forecasts of a significant number of domestic and international economic variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

     

  •   Sector Focus
    The Q2 report is now available with economic industry analysis and detailed forecasts of key sector variables.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Consumer Outlook 
    The Q2 report analyses the latest trends in economic variables that impact directly on the consumer and retail market, and also includes detailed forecasts of key economic variables, consumption expenditure and retail sales.
    Click here to purchase.

     

  •   Quarterly Automotive Outlook 
    The report focuses on the latest South African and global commercial vehicle and truck market developments.  Forecasts of key economic variables, vehicle sales (passenger cars, LCV, MCV, HCV, XHCV and buses), oil and fuel prices and exchange rates, as well as a List Price Index model (containing a forecast for the escalation rates of top selling passenger and LCV’s), are also included.
    Click here to purchase.

Experian, in partnership with Econometrix, releases South Africa’s Business Debt Index (BDI) – a vital and unprecedented benchmark to interpret the state of business’s debt paying abilities.  The index measures the relative ability for business to pay its outstanding creditors on time and tracks macro-economic indicators that can impact on the ability of companies to pay its creditors.  The BDI is an indication of how the players in the business community in South Africa are settling their credit arrangements with suppliers – in other words, it is a reflection of the overall health of businesses.
For the latest BDI release click here
For a more detailed report regarding debt stress in South Africa by sector, please contact our sales team.

 

LATEST REPORTS

  • Paper & Printing Trends: CPI inflation rates for income/LSM groups: Aug 2016.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: CPI inflation rates for income/LSM groups: Aug 2016.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: CPI inflation rates for income/LSM groups: Aug 2016.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Petrol price to rise by 43c/l at midnight, with OPEC deal to limit production exerting upward pressure on oil price.

     

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  • Financial Markets: PMI data in focus this week.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Transport inflation moderated in July

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  • Revs Newsletter: PPI inflation for transport equipment increases in July.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Total media adspend growth declines sharply in July./td>

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Growth in electricity generation rises sharply for statistical reasons, linked to steep fall in generation in mid-2015.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Total media adspend growth declines sharply in July.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Paper & Printing Trends - Monthly Review - Sep 2016.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Revs - Monthly Review - Sep 2016.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Consumer Market Trends - Monthly review - Sep 2016.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: All vehicle segments record a decline in September.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: All vehicle segments record a decline in September.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: PPI inflation for transport equipment moderates in August.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Margins of most major retailers improve in August.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Encouraging continuation of surplus on trade balance in July, endorses perception of improvement in terms of trade which ought to support the Rand.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: JSE ALSH outperforms both consumer goods and services in September.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: International pulp and paper price report - September 2016.

     

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  • Ecobulletin: Estimated R27bn capital inflow from AB Inbev deal in September boosted the Rand, but risk off due to strong US data this week weakens the Rand.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Total media adspend growth moderated in January.
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  • EcoBulletin: Increase in growth of civil summonses and judgements for debt in August, but still quite subdued.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Wholesale sales fall in August, but Y-O-Y growth improves for statistical reasons.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Retail sales slowdown into August much as expected and likely to continue.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Transport inflation increases sharply in September.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Narrative of lower-than-expected inflation continues into September, reinforcing unchanged interest rates for some time to come.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Tourist arrivals from outside of Africa continue to grow by more than 20% Y-O-Y on the back of competitive Rand and easier Visa restrictions.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Encouragingly strong mining production for August, together with better-than-expected manufacturing, enhances likelihood that recession has been avoided.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Manufacturing production growth rises in August, but this sector could exert downward pressure on GDP growth in the 3rd Qtr.

     

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  • Financial Markets: Fed rate hike risks remain elevated despite US non-farm payrolls data coming in below expectations.

     

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Rand regains some ground over the month.

     

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  • Revs Newsletter: Rand regains some ground over the month.

     

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  • EcoBulletin: Rate of employment destruction in formal sector is at least not dramatic: Formal employment down -0.3% Y-O-Y in 2nd Qtr.

     

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  • Consumer Market Trends: Consumer financial position improves somewhat in Q2 2016.
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  • Revs Newsletter: Consumer financial position improves somewhat in Q2 2016.
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  • Paper & Printing Trends: International pulp and paper price report.

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  • Paper & Printing Trends: Consumer financial position improves somewhat in Q2 2016.
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  • Latest From Azar
    “Encouragingly strong focus on State Capture could obviate the need for credit ratings downgrades, although these are reasonably likely”
    Amidst charges by the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) against Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, his countervailing charges against the Gupta family for unsavoury business dealings, coupled with a report by the Public Protector regarding State capture which has yet to be released, an enormous amount of anxiety has developed with regard to the outlook for the country's credit ratings. On the other hand, should there be success in reducing the incidence of State capture. Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Uncertainty surrounding fraud allegations against Gordhan to keep Rand under pressure until at least 2 November”
    Much apprehension surrounds the decision by the Hawks to charge Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan in what is seen by many as an attempt to get his obstruction to anyone outside of National Treasury laying hands on public finances for personal benefit, out of the way. As much as many see the latest moves as a ploy to eliminate Gordhan's attempts to protect the Treasury, the support given by the Presidency to Gordhan should ensure that his removal does not occur any time soon. In turn, this should prevent a large-scale sell-off in the Rand in the short term. . ..Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    The charge of fraud against Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan will be seen by most investors as an attempt to pave the way for him to be replaced as Minister of Finance by those eager to capture Treasury in order to benefit themselves from lucrative deals that might be forthcoming in the absence of close oversight of the country's finances by Treasury. Fortunately, most commentators and investors believe that Gordhan is a man of integrity and is not guilty of any major misdemeanour. For this reason, the 3% Rand depreciation in the wake of the announcement is probably much more limited than the potential for the currency to fall if indeed Gordhan is replaced as Minister of Finance. . .  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar

    “Perspective on ‘Fees Must Fall’”
    Amidst much rhetoric regarding the "Fees Must Fall" (FMF) campaign, it is important and relevant to clarify some misconceptions.
    Firstly, one needs to differentiate between freezing fees at current levels and abolishing university fees completely.
    Secondly, abolition of fees theoretically can be met through reduced corruption in one year, but has huge implications from a longer-term perspective in terms of the sustainability of the funding of no fees for education. A scheme, which attempts to provide totally free university education, runs the risk of increasing the public debt and bringing about credit ratings downgrades.

     

  • Latest From Azar
    Is The Era Of Low Petrol Prices Over?
    Based on the 43 cl under-recovery on 95 octane petrol today, it is likely that the petrol price will be raised by this order of magnitude next Wednesday. The impact on inflation will be to raise it by around 0.2% for the October reading on CPI inflation, taking it back up out of the 3% to 6% inflation target once again. The increase in the petrol price has been driven mainly by a moderate depreciation in the Rand/Dollar exchange rate during the course of September compared with August. Oil prices have also edged upwards on average. However, the big event this week has been the unexpected agreement on the part of OPEC to reduce production for the first time in eight years. This has caused the oil price to rise by about 7%. . .  . .  Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    US presidential overview and repercussions.
    The US economy has been accumulating structural issues which have manifested themselves in two polarising presidential candidates Hillary Clinton has arguably the more moderate and traditional economic policies, favouring business as usual with a liberal slant and fiscal restraint Donald Trump has cherry picked policies from different ends of the economic spectrum, abandoning fiscal responsibility A Hillary victory would bring . . .   Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Rand benefits from dovish US Fed stance, Moody's upbeat remarks about credit rating and AB Inbev inflows”
    Rand strength has resumed considerably in the past week for a number of reasons. Firstly, the publication of weak US economic data in the build-up to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the unsurprisingly dovish comments made at the FOMC suggest US interest rates are going to rise by less than previously anticipated. This has contributed towards a renewed "risk on" environment which favours emerging market currencies such as the Rand. . . .Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    Weak US employment data cause Rand to appreciate 2%: Classical manifestation of how it is international financial developments which dominate the SA currency”
    Today's developments relating to the Rand represent a classical example of how it is international financial developments which dominate movements in the Rand more than domestic factors.
    The whole country has been waiting on edge to hear news from Standard and Poor's (S&P) later today on its decision on whether or not to downgrade South Africa's foreign debt credit rating to junk status or not. However, before this announcement has been made, the Rand has appreciated within a matter of hours by 2% (to around R15.30 to the Dollar, from R15.60 earlier in the day). . . Please login to access full article

     

  • Latest From Azar
    “Rand depreciates again due to both international and domestic factors: Ambiguous interpretation possible of finance minister's statement”
    Once again, it is tempting to suggest that the most recent 10%-odd depreciation of the Rand against major currencies is a function of domestic political developments surrounding the stature of the National Treasury. However, international factors have also played an important role. Data out of the US have reflected higher inflation than had been expected and a number of real economic indicators have been stronger than anticipated. This has led to renewed expectations of some interest rate increases in the world's largest economy in the second half of the year.  Please login to access full article

     

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Econometrix Park • 8 West Street
Houghton • Johannesburg • 2198
Tel • +27 11 483-1421 
Fax • +27 11 483-2498
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info@econometrix.co.za