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| 20 May 2013 |
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RAND DEPRECIATION NOT JUST DUE TO MINING STRIKES
The Rand/Dollar exchange rate has depreciated by some 5% over the past few weeks.
Many will attribute the depreciation to the negative impact of renewed labour turmoil in the mining industry and the fear that this will increase the trade and current account deficits still further from already very high levels. In this regard, the platinum mining industry finds itself in a perfect storm, w... |
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| 17 May 2013 |
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GROWTH IN BUILDING PLANS PASSED UP IN 1ST QTR
As an indicator of what to expect in the building industry in 2013, growth in residential building plans passed in 2012, at 12.3%, was up on the 8.5% growth of 2011. However, in contrast, growth in non-residential plans passed in 2012, of 8.2%, was down on the 20.3% 2011 growth rate. At least in both cases, growth has remained at or above inflation. The conclusion is that the building industry in ... |
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| 7 May 2013 |
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WHY AUSTRALIA'S RATE CUT WILL NOT FORCE RESERVE BANK'S HAND
The Reserve Bank of Australia this morning reduced the Bank's key lending rate, following on a similar move by the European Central Bank last week. This has raised suggestions that the South African Reserve Bank may now feel obliged to reduce domestic interest rates.
However, there are two critical differences with South Africa. Firstly, the Rand has depreciated significantly against both... |
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| 3 May 2013 |
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ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION FALLS AT A SLOWER PACE IN MARCH
After plummeting at an accelerating pace between November and February, y-o-y growth in electricity consumption rose to a less negative -3.0% in March, up significantly from -6.9% in February. M-o-m seasonally adjusted growth was only marginally negative, at -0.2%.
These figures suggest that Eskom may have reduced the pace at which it has been paying large electricity intensive metal proc... |
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| 26 April 2013 |
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UNDERLYING PPI INFLATION HAS INCREASED QUITE A LOT
PPI figures for March suggest that the underlying PPI inflation rate increased considerably during the month compared with February. Even though inflation in respect of electricity and agricultural products declined, they increased considerably in respect of final and intermediate manufactured goods, as well as mining products. Furthermore, the imputed singular PPI inflation rate as measured until... |
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| 23 April 2013 |
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DISTURBING INCREASE IN GROWTH OF LATEST INSOLVENCIES AND COMPULSORY COMPANY LIQUIDATIONS DATA
Although the y-o-y growth in insolvencies remained negative in February, it increased markedly compared with January. In the case of compulsory company liquidations, the y-o-y growth rate also increased, but this time for March compared with February. For voluntary liquidations, growth slowed, but was still positive in March.
The pattern of these data, even if in some cases gro... |
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| 11 April 2013 |
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COMMENTARY ON THE BHP BILLITON ESKOM ELECTRICITY CONTRACTS
BHP Billiton and Eskom contracts were signed in a different era when electricity was cheap and Eskom had an over-supply of electricity. However, the situation has changed as there is no longer a surplus of electricity in the country due to the country not building new power stations years ago and the world going into deep recession.
The cost of producing electricity for the public an... |
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| 8 April 2013 |
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IS FISCAL AUSTERITY ALSO DAMPENING US GROWTH?
Friday saw the publication of US non-farm payrolls data, reflecting the lowest rate of job creation in nine months. Together with weak ISM figures released earlier in the week, this has raised questions regarding the sustainability of nascent signs of an improvement in US economic growth in recent months. Specifically, there are suspicions that fiscal measures taken in recent months to constrain t... |
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| 5 April 2013 |
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BANK OF JAPAN ESCALATES "CURRENCY WAR"
In its efforts to eliminate 20 years of deflation, the Bank of Japan yesterday launched an unprecedented programme of quantitative easing. The Yen depreciated by almost 5%, taking its cumulative depreciation against the Dollar over the past year, to 20%.
At the same time, the European Central Bank Governor, Mario Draghi, reiterated once again that analysts should not underestimate the Ban... |
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| 4 April 2013 |
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IMPROVED TAX COLLECTIONS: GOOD NEWS OR BAD NEWS?
In a press announcement marking the end of the 2012/13 fiscal year, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan encouragingly announced that government revenue would actually come in R4.0bn higher than budgeted for in last month's Budget. Furthermore, because government spending has fallen short of budget most recently in a couple of areas, the combination of better revenue collections and less expenditure me... |
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