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| 20 March 2013 |
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CPI INFLATION IN FEBRUARY REVERSES UNEXPECTED DECLINE IN JANUARY
The y-o-y CPI inflation rate rose unexpectedly sharply in February, to 5.9%, from 5.4% in January. This reverses the unexpectedly sharp fall in inflation in January, when a higher figure of around 5.8% had been anticipated.
When the unexpectedly low January CPI inflation figure was announced, we warned that there appeared to be a distortion in the timing of the measurement of medical aid ... |
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| 14 March 2013 |
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Mining production growth surges in January but downside risks remain firmly in place
After recording a sharp -7.2% y-o-y decline in mining production in December, the growth in mining production recovered strongly in January to record a gain of 6.9% y-o-y (seasonally adjusted). The strong recovery in mining production growth in January is due in part to statistical base effects, with the January 2013 output figure being compared to the depressed January 2012 figure. However, m-o-m... |
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| 11 March 2013 |
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PETROL PRICE COULD FALL IN APRIL, BUT DON'T EXPECT RATE CUT
Amidst gloomy forecasts of another big petrol price hike in April, it is important to reiterate that the price could in fact decline, even if marginally, despite the fact that there will be 23 cl added to the price on account of an increase in the fuel and Road Accident Fund levies.
The impact on the CPI inflation rate will be to reduce it by a relatively hefty -0.4% other things equal in... |
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| 7 March 2013 |
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MINING STRIKES HIT ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN JANUARY
Y-o-y growth in electricity consumption fell further and in January, to -4.1%, from -3.8% in December. M-o-m seasonally adjusted growth was also negative, at -0.6%.
We suspect that the continuing fall off in electricity consumption reflects the adverse impact of reduced mining production as well as ongoing consumer resistance to the sharp increases in electricity prices over the past five... |
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| 6 March 2013 |
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FARMERS TURN TO MECHANISATION ON BACK OF SHARP INCREASE IN MINIMUM WAGE
The y-o-y growth in tractor sales picked up fairly significantly in February compared with January and the growth in combine harvester sales remained very strong in the month.
This may have reflected farmers opting to turn to mechanisation on the back of the dramatic 52% increase in the minimum wage in the agricultural sector due to come into effect on 1st March.
Additional fact... |
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| 1 March 2013 |
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NERSA DECISION ON ELECTRICITY TARIFFS EMINENTLY SENSIBLE
Thursday sees an announcement by NERSA regarding its decision on electricity tariff increases for the next few years. Eskom had requested a 16% annual tariff increase for each of the next five years, but we expect NERSA to agree upon a much lower rate of increase, probably in the region of 10% to 12% per annum.
A number of factors persuade us that a lower rate of tariff increase will be a... |
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| 28 February 2013 |
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2013 BUDGET: FEW SURPRISES BUT LITTLE INSPIRATION EITHER
The 2013 Budget contained few surprises. The modest increases in the budget deficits for the current fiscal year and the next two fiscal years, were anticipated and constituted a logical outcome of a downward revision of economic growth forecasts and hence of revenue forecasts. In part these were driven by commensurate downward revisions of global growth forecasts which impacted negatively on the ... |
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| 25 February 2013 |
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LOW GROWTH IN LIQUIDATIONS RUNS COUNTER TO DECLINE IN CCI
Reassurance that the state of financial health in the business sector is not deteriorating as was feared a few months ago has been provided by the sharp decline in the number of compulsory company liquidations in October and November, especially compared with the same months last year. The number of voluntary liquidations also fell sharply in November.
Although the growth in insolven... |
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| 21 February 2013 |
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A LIMIT TO WHAT BUDGET CAN ACHIEVE
Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan's room for manoeuvre in next week's budget is very limited given suboptimal growth in the economy and associated signs that growth in government revenue is behind target. At the same time, he is under pressure to budget for reduced deficits over the next few years or else rating agencies are threatening to downgrade the credit rating on South African government bond... |
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| 20 February 2013 |
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OMINOUS DECLINE IN CONSUMER CREDIT HEALTH
Probably the most alarming insight into deteriorating consumer credit health has been provided by the TransUnion Consumer Credit Index (CCI) for the 1st qtr of 2013, with the index falling sharply to 44.4, from 49.4 in the 4th qtr of 2012. According to the latest reading, the credit health of consumers is at its lowest level since prior to the global financial crisis in 2007.
The con... |
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